2026 Oscars Predictions: What Will Win and What Should Win

The 98th Academy Awards is tonight! Last year I only correctly predicted 13 out of 23 categories—not great! I have some predictions for this year’s ceremony that, if I’m wrong, I’ll still be happy with who I think could win instead. Long story short: I’m not predicting that many wins for Sinners, despite it being the most nominated film ever—but if it does sweep, it’ll be such an exciting one.

Best Picture

Nominees:

1. Bugonia

2. F1

3. Frankenstein

4. Hamnet

5. Marty Supreme

6. One Battle After Another

7. The Secret Agent

8. Sentimental Value

9. Sinners

10. Train Dreams

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Should Win: One Battle After Another

Could Win: Sinners

Should’ve Been Nominated: Wake Up Dead Man

I’m sure Warner Bros. is excited to know that the Best Picture race is between two of their own films: One Battler After Another and Sinners. In any other category, there would be a fear that the two films would siphon votes from one another, resulting in a third film winning. But Best Picture is voted through ranked choice voting, so that risk isn’t there. This is good news for One Battle After Another, whose award is theirs to lose. Sure, Sinners has set a new record for most nominations for a single film (16), but if you speak with Martin Scorsese, he’d tell you that many nominations does not necessarily result in many wins. One Battle After Another has won pretty much every major precursor award. Sinners could win, but I’d put all my money on One Battle After Another.

Best Director

Nominees:

1. Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

2. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)

3. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

4. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)

5. Ryan Coogler (Sinners)

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Could Win: Ryan Coogler

Should’ve Been Nominated: Rian Johnson (Wake Up Dead Man)

This is Paul Thomas Anderson’s fourth Best Director nomination, and this might be the year he finally takes it. Like Best Picture, PTA’s biggest competition is Sinners’s director Ryan Coogler. And like Best Picture, PTA has won many major precursor awards, so he’s the one to beat.

Best Actor

Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)

3. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)

4. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

5. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

Will Win: Timothée Chalamet

Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio

Could Win: Michael B. Jordan

Dark Horse: Wagner Moura

For the majority of the awards season, it seemed like Timothée Chalamet was on track to finally win an Oscar after two previous nominations. But then he lost the BAFTA to Robert Aramayo—who wasn't nominated for this year’s Oscars. And then, earlier this month, just days before Oscars voting ended, Michael B. Jordan pulled a surprising upset at the Actor Awards. Was this enough to sway voters towards Jordan? The math says he’s the favorite. But my gut says Chalamet will still win after all. Maybe I’ll be wrong, and Chalamet will share the same fate as Leonardo DiCaprio and won’t earn an Oscar until he’s much older. And don’t underestimate Wagner Moura, who still has a decent mathematical change of winning and can surprise us all, not unlike when many of us thought the 2019 Best Actress race was between Glenn Close and Lady Gaga, only for Olivia Colman to win in the end.

Best Actress

Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

2. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)

3. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)

4. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)

5. Emma Stone (Bugonia)

Will Win: Jessie Buckley

Should Win: Jessie Buckley

This is one of the easiest categories to predict. Jessie Buckley hasn’t faced serious competition in any major precursors, so this is her’s to lose.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

1. Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)

2. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)

3. Delroy Lindo (Sinners)

4. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

5. Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Will Win: Sean Penn

Should Win: Sean Penn

Could Win: Delroy Lindo

Dark Horse: Stellan Skarsgård

Sean Penn already has two Oscars under his belt, but that was nearly two decades ago. It’s a good time for a third. Based on the major precursors, this award could go to any one of the nominees. While I think Penn is the frontrunner, perhaps the Sinners momentum will propel Delroy Lindo to a win for his first and only nomination.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

1. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)

2. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)

3. Amy Madigan (Weapons)

4. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)

5. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

Will Win: Amy Madigan

Should Win: Amy Madigan

Could Win: Teyana Taylor or Wunmi Mosaku

Should’ve Been Nominated: Regina Hall (One Battle After Another) and Zoe Winters (Materialists)

Like Best Supporting Actor, this category could go to almost anyone. Teyana Taylor may have won the Golden Globe and Wunmi Mosaku may have won the BAFTA, but those don’t overlap with Oscars voters as much as the Critics Choice and Actor Awards, both of which Amy Madigan won. So I predict Madigan will win, but Taylor and Mosaku are not totally out of the picture. What works against Madigan is the fact that she is the only nominee from her film, whereas Taylor and Mosaku represent two of the Best Picture frontrunners.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

1. Blue Moon

2. It Was Just an Accident

3. Marty Supreme

4. Sentimental Value

5. Sinners

Will Win: Sinners

Should Win: Sinners

Should’ve Been Nominated: Weapons

Sinners won almost every major precursor, only losing the Golden Globe to One Battle After Another. Luckily, the latter is nominated for the Oscar in the Adapted Screenplay category, so Sinners is on track to win—and likely earn Ryan Coogler his first Academy Award.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

1. Bugonia

2. Frankenstein

3. Hamnet

4. One Battle After Another

5. Train Dreams

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Should Win: One Battle After Another

Should’ve Been Nominated: Wake Up Dead Man

See previous category explainer for why One Battle After Another will win.

Best Animated Feature Film

Nominees:

1. Arco

2. Elio

3. KPop Demon Hunters

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

5. Zootopia 2

Will Win: Zootopia 2

Should Win: Zootopia 2

Could Win: KPop Demon Hunters

The math says pop culture phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters is the heavy favorite to win, but, despite my better judgement, my gut says Zootopia 2 will take the award. Over the last three years, the more artsy film has won over the more mainstream flick, but this year, there isn’t a major artsy film that’s been a serious threat to the more mainstream nominees. I think it’s a two-way race between KPop Demon Hunters and Zootopia 2, and I’m predicting Zootopia 2 because it’s more critically acclaimed and it’s now the second-highest grossing film of all time.

Best International Feature Film

Nominees:

1. It Was Just an Accident (France)

2. The Secret Agent (Brazil)

3. Sentimental Value (Norway)

4. Sirāt (Spain)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Will Win: Sentimental Value

Could Win: The Secret Agent

Should’ve Been Nominated: No Other Choice (South Korea)

Over the last several years, it used to be easy to predict this category because there was usually a film nominated here that was also nominated for Best Picture. But, this time, none of these films are Best Picture nominees. I’m predicting Sentimental Value will win since its director, Joachim Trier, was nominated for Best Director, which usually goes hand-in-hand with a Best Picture nomination, making me believe the film likely held the 11th Best Picture spot.

Best Documentary Feature Film

Nominees:

1. The Alabama Solution

2. Come See Me in the Good Light

3. Cutting Through Rocks

4. Mr Nobody Against Putin

5. The Perfect Neighbor

Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor

This is one of the categories I’m not as fluent in, so I’m going to go with the math.

Best Documentary Short Film

Nominees:

1. All the Empty Rooms

2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

3. Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”

4. The Devil Is Busy

5. Perfectly a Strangeness

Will Win: All the Empty Rooms

Could Win: The Devil is Busy

These shorts categories are always a shot in the dark for me, and I don’t have a good track record in predicting them. From my very brief research, it seems like All the Empty Rooms—which documents empty bedrooms of kids who’ve been killed in school shootings—and The Devil is Busy—about an Atlanta abortion clinic besieged by protestors—are the likely winners.

Best Live Action Short Film

Nominees:

1. Butchers’ Stain

2. A Friend of Dorothy

3. Jane Austen’s Period Drama

4. The Singers

5. Two People Exchanging Saliva

Will Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva

This is another guest, and I’m going with Two People Exchanging Saliva. It certainly doesn’t hurt that a big name like Julianne More is an executive producer.

Best Animated Short Film

Nominees:

1. Butterfly

2. Forevergreen

3. The Girl Who Cried Pearls

4. Retirement Plan

5. The Three Sisters

Will Win: Retirement Plan

Could Win: Butterfly

Variety thinks Retirement Plan will win, and since I don’t know anything about this category, I’m going to predict the same win.

Best Original Score

Nominees:

1. Bugonia

2. Frankenstein

3. Hamnet

4. One Battle After Another

5. Sinners

Will Win: Sinners

Should Win: Sinners

Could Win: One Battle After Another

Should’ve Been Nominated: F1

Will composer Ludwig Göransson (Sinners) go three-for-three wins in this category? It’s very likely.

Best Original Song

Nominees:

1. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners

4. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!

5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

Will Win: “I Lied to You”

Should Win: “I Lied to You”

Could Win: “Golden”

Should’ve Been Nominated: “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners, “My Baby (Got Nothing At All)” from Materialists, “What It Sounds Like” from KPop Demon Hunters

The math says “Golden” will win, and I think that’s the smart pick because the song is such a huge hit. However, I’m going to go against the grain and predict “I Lied to You” will win, with the song being such a memorable part of the film—and (personally) in cinematic history.

Best Sound

Nominees:

1. F1

2. Frankenstein

3. One Battle After Another

4. Sinners

5. Sirāt

Will Win: F1

Should Win: F1

Could Win: Sinners

This award usually goes to the films that are more action-driven, sci-fi, or tech-savvy, and F1 fits this profile. If Sinners ends up winning many of these technical categories, we may be looking at a sweep for Sinners-mania.

Best Casting

Nominees:

1. Hamnet

2. Marty Supreme

3. One Battle After Another

4. The Secret Agent

5. Sinners

Will Win: Sinners

Should Win: One Battle After Another

Could Win: One Battle After Another

Should’ve Been Nominated: Black Bag

This is the first new category introduced since Best Animated Feature Film was introduced in 2001. Since it’s new, we don’t know what to expect. It’s safe to assume the award will align with the films likely to win Best Picture, which means One Battle After Another or Sinners. The math says Sinners, so I’m going with that, too.

Best Production Design

Nominees:

1. Frankenstein

2. Hamnet

3. Marty Supreme

4. One Battle After Another

5. Sinners

Will Win: Frankenstein

Should Win: Sinners

Could Win: Sinners

Should’ve Been Nominated: Avatar: Fire and Ash

I think this is a two-way race between Frankenstein and Sinners. I haven’t seen the former, so it’s hard to personally determine if it deserves to win. But the math says it’s the frontrunner, so I’ll go with that.

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

1. Frankenstein

2. Marty Supreme

3. One Battle After Another

4. Sinners

5. Train Dreams

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Should Win: One Battle After Another

Could Win: Sinners

Should’ve Been Nominated: Black Bag, Wake Up Dead Man

This is a close race between One Battle After Another and Sinners. A win for either film would result in the first win for their respective cinematographers; a win for Sinners would make Autumn Durald Arkapaw not only the first woman of color to be nominated in this category, but also the first woman to ever win. It’s basically a coin toss at this point, and I think the better film will win, and that’s One Battle After Another.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees:

1. Frankenstein

2. Kokuho

3. Sinners

4. The Smashing Machine

5. The Ugly Stepsister

Will Win: Frankenstein

Could Win: Sinners

Should’ve Been Nominated: Superman

These technical categories tend to favor films that aren’t in strong contention for Best Picture. This is another category that Frankenstein will likely win.

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. Frankenstein

3. Hamnet

4. Marty Supreme

5. Sinners

Will Win: Frankenstein

Could Win: Sinners

I haven’t seen Frankenstein, so it’s hard to judge. But all the signs point towards it winning this technical category, too.

Best Film Editing

Nominees:

1. F1

2. Marty Supreme

3. One Battle After Another

4. Sentimental Value

5. Sinners

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Should Win: One Battle After Another

Could Win: F1

It used to be easy to predict this category, as it usually aligned with the eventual Best Picture winner. However, since 2010, that has rarely been the case. But then, the three most recent winners have all gone on to win Best Picture. And the math is predicting the Best Picture and Best Editing categories will match up again this year. While I also predict One Battle After Another will win, I wouldn’t count out F1 just yet. Like I said, this category rarely goes to serious contenders for Best Picture, instead going to films that are more “technical” action or sci-fi films. 

Best Visual Effects

Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. F1

3. Jurassic World Rebirth

4. The Lost Bus

5. Sinners

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Should’ve Been Nominated: How to Train Your Dragon, Superman

The first two Avatar films won this category, so it’s safe to assume it’ll be a three-peat.